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以GIS为基础的禽流感预测预警研究进展

点击数:2767  时间:2019-10-24 15:19:43  来源: 信息处      作者: 张 毅,王幼明,李吉达 等

GIS是一种对地理环境等方面数据进行储存、分析、加工和呈现的综合工具。利用GIS可以把流感病例的相关数据与气候、环境和社会等数据进行整合和分析,通过统计学或数学模型,找到影响流感发生和传播的风险因素,对流感的发生趋势进行预测和可视化预警。国内外学者利用GIS在禽流感风险因素分析和预测等方面做了大量研究,包括对人感染H7N9流感、高致病性H5亚型禽流感、野禽流感风险因素和预测的研究,不同基因型病毒分布特征的研究,兽医决策辅助应用研究等。这些研究对指导兽医流行病学研究人员将GIS更好地应用于禽流感防控具有帮助意义。

ResearchProgress of Forecasting and Early Warning of AvianInfluenza Based on GIS

Geographicinformation systemGISis a comprehensive tool for storinganalyzingprocessing and presenting data relatedto geographic environmentwhich couldintegrate and analyze the data regarding influenza casesclimatesociety andothersand identify all risk factors foroccurrence and spreading of influenza by use of statistics or mathematicalmodels to forecast and visually warn any trends of influenza. In recent yearsa large number of studies on risk factorsanalyzing and forecasting of avian influenzaAIhad been carried out by scholars inboth home and abroad by means of GISincludingstudies on the risk factors andforecasting of human infection with H7N9 influenzaH5 highly pathogenic avian influenzaHPAIand wild AIstudies on the distributioncharacteristics of different genotypes of virusesas well as theapplication researches on the supporting of veterinary decision-making. Thesestudies would provide some references for veterinary epidemiologists toeffectively control AI by GIS.

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